论文标题:天津房地产市场现状及前景研究
Research on Development Status of Tianjin Real EstateMarket and Its Future
论文作者
论文导师 吴德夫,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 管理科学与工程
论文单位 重庆大学,点击次数 442,论文页数 94页File Size749K
2006-04-20论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_917247/
real estate market; interactive relation; forecast
天津房地产市场近十年一直保持稳定发展态势。特别是在2003年,由于受到市政府进行的大规模拆迁影响,市民对房地产的刚性需求被大量释放,与此同时房地产投资也有了一个飞跃,供需双方的增长促成了天津房地产市场新一轮的起飞。但是在近两年天津房地产市场快速发展过程中存在着供应结构不合理,商品房价格上涨过快等不稳定因素,由此引发了人们对天津房地产市场是否存在过热现象、有没有泡沫的激烈讨论。因此有必要在这个关键的时期详细地梳理天津房地产的发展情况,这对于保持天津房地产业与国民经济共同持续健康快速发展具有重要的意义。 本文的研究内容主要集中在对天津房地产市场发展情况的分析和对未来市场发展走势的展望两个方面。 对天津房地产市场发展情况的分析主要包括了4个方面的内容:一是对影响天津房地产市场发展的宏观发展环境的分析;二是对天津房地产市场供求双方以及商品房价格的分析;三是对天津市房地产市场发展与宏观经济的互动关系的分析;四是提出的一些政策建议。 对天津市未来房地产市场发展走势的展望采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法对未来两年天津市房地产市场的供应量、需求量以及2006年商品房的价格进行了预测。 本文的最后部分对研究的内容做了总结,认为目前天津的房地产市场整体是比较健康的,未来市场会继续繁荣发展,2006年商品房价格水平会在2005年基础上继续稳定上涨。
Tianjin’s real estate market has maintained a stable development situation for nearly ten years. Especially in 2003, because of the influence coming under the large-scale relocation which the municipal government carried on, the resident’s rigid demand for the real estat is massively released, while at the same time, the real estate investment also had a leap. The both sides growth of supply and demand facilitated Tianjin’s real estate market a new taking-off. However, such unstable factors as the unreasonable supply structure, the over-speed of the commodity housing’s price and ect..exist in the process of Tianjin’s real estate market’s fast development in recent two years, which initiates the discussion of whether the market has some over-hot phenomenon and whether it has some bubbles. Therefore it is quite necessary in this crucial time to analyze the Tianjin’s real estate market development status in detail, in order that both of the Tianjin’s real estate industry and the national economy can healthily develop at a favorable speed. The research of this article will mainly concentrate on two aspects which are the analysis of Tianjin’s real estate market development status and the forecast of the market’s future development trend. There are four aspects contained in the analysis of Tianjin’s real estate market development status: first of all, the analysis of the macroscopic environment which has influence on the development of Tianjin’s real estate market; secondly, the analysis of the both sides of supply and demand of Tianjin’s real estate market as well as the price of the commodity housing; thirdly, the analysis of the interactive relations between the macroscopic economy and Tianjin’s real estate market development status; and finally, some policy suggestions. On the forecast of the market’s future development trend, the method of the combination of qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis will be used to forecast the quantity of supply and demand for real estate market in the future two years as well as the price of commodity housing in year 2006. The article finally makes a summary, considering that the present Tianjin’s real estate market is considerable healthy, and the future market will be able to continue the prosperity, the price of commodity housing will be keep rising in 2006 at a stable pace.
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