论文标题:中国小麦市场流通的变化与趋势
Changing Trends of Wheat Marketing in China
论文作者 卜轶彪
论文导师 黄季焜,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 农业经济管理
论文单位 中国农业科学院,点击次数 81,论文页数 84页File Size3611k
2004-06-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_93258702/ 小麦,流通,世贸组织,名义价格保护率
Wheat, Marketing, WTO, Nominal Protection Rate
小麦是我国粮食生产的第二大品种，产量占粮食总产量的25％左右。我国小麦的质量相对比较低，但能够很好地满足国内绝大部分需求。20世纪80年代以后我国对优质小麦的需求增长迅速，但大部分优质小麦需求仍需依赖进口来满足。20世纪90年代中期以前优质小麦几乎全部依靠进口，20世纪90年代中期以后，尽管国产优质小麦在全部小麦产量中所占的比例在逐渐增加，但仍不能满足国内需求。同时，普通小麦已经供大于求，特别是国内品质低劣的春小麦几乎没有市场需求。 小麦生产的区域性和分布的不均衡性决定了小麦的区域流通成为必然。小麦的区域间流动(包括流动方向和流动数量)从根本上说取决于区域间小麦供给水平和消费水平的差异。而且随着供给水平和消费水平的不断变化，输入地区和输出地区的界限不是一成不变的。总体趋势是，小麦供给水平在年度间和不同季节呈波动状态，增减相互交替；而小麦消费水平是因经济结构的优化、收入水平的提高和食品替代品的变换呈减少趋势。 本研究的目的在于较好地阐述我国小麦流通格局的变化趋势，并且对影响小麦流通的因素以及入世后我国小麦市场受到的影响作了讨论。本论文采用的第一手数据来自小麦流通实地调查，小麦分地区产量、消费量以及贸易量等数据主要是来自统计资料和研究报告。小麦流通实地调研地区包括小麦主产区(河南)和小麦主销区(广东、重庆、上海)。分析小麦的比较优势或者政策对小麦市场的扭曲主要是通过NPR计算来进行。 结果显示：小麦流通格局的演变体现了市场化改革的取向，统计数据显示，国有粮食流通企业占社会粮食流通总量的比重已经由20世纪80年代初期的90％下降到2003年的50％以下，非国营粮食流通企业(包括集体和私营)的粮食经营量逐渐增加，已经逐渐取代地方粮食局成为地区小麦贸易的主渠道。我们的分析同样表明，我国产销区小麦市场价格基本上是一体化的，产区小麦价格与销区小麦价格的差距与产销区之间的运输成本基本吻合，政府对国内小麦贸易干预程度较低，小麦价格信号在国内市场的传递过程中没有受到扭曲，市场效率较高。我国只有黄淮地区和西南地区是小麦产量大于消费量的地区，可以向其他地区输出小麦，其余地区均为产量不足消费量的小麦输入地区。而且从1992／93年度至2002／03年度呈现出来的特点是，小麦输出地区能够输出的小麦数量在逐渐减少，而小麦输入地区需要输入的小麦数量在逐渐增加，这也反映了全国小麦总体产需关系的变化趋势。2000年以前，我国小麦国内批发价格一直高于国际市场价格(到岸价格)，最高时NPR达到96％。从1988年开始NPR值开始逐渐减小，国内价格开始向国际价格趋近，到2000年时，NPR值下降至18％，说明国内价格仍然比国际价格高18％。在2001年1月至2004年5月期间，我国优质小麦价格与国际市场小麦价格的对比关系出现过反复，大部分时间都是国内优质小麦价格高于国际市场小麦价格，NPR值基本在15％左右，只有在2002年8月至2003年3月期间NPR为负值，说明我国优质小麦价格低于国际市场价格。但从2003年11月，我国国内小麦价格大幅上涨，同期国际市场小麦价格虽然也在上涨，但上涨幅度低于国内小麦价格上涨幅度，因此NPR值又重新回到15-25％的水平。加入世贸组织以后，我国将进口较多的优质强筋小麦和优质弱筋小麦，主要冲击的将是国内优质小麦市场，而对于占据国内市场主要份额的普通小麦市场则影响不大。
Wheat is the second largest grain in China and its output accounts for 25 percent of total grain production. The quality of Chinese wheat is generally low. Lower quality wheat meets well the most of domestic demand. Demand for higher quality wheat has been growing rapidly since 1980s. A large part of high quality wheat demanded in China, however, has to depend on the import. For example, China had almost imported all its needed high quality wheat by the middle of 1990s. Although the domestic production of high quality wheat has been increasing, China has continued to rely its large portion of high quality wheat demand on the international market. On the other hand, the domestic production of low (or normal) quality wheat has exceeded market demand, in particular, the internal low quality spring wheat has few market demand.The regional patterns of wheat production and consumptions determine the necessity of wheat regional circulation or trade. The wheat regional circulation in terms of trade flow direction and quantity largely depends on the gaps between regional production and consumption. With continuous changes of the regional production and consumption, the regional trade has also been changing. The regional trade patterns follow the fluctuations of production among years and over seasons and the changes in wheat consumption that are resulted from income growth, and the changes in relative food prices and consumption patterns.The objective of this study is to have a better understanding of changing trends of wheat marketing in China. The factors that determine wheat circulation and the challenges of China"s WTO accession on China"s wheat marketing are discussed. Data used in this study are from based on our primary wheat marketing survey and secondary data on regional wheat production, consumption, and trade. The primary wheat marketing survey was conducted in major wheat production province (Henan) and main wheat importing areas (Guangdong, Chongqing, and Shanghai). The comparative advantages or policy distortion in wheat is analyzed through computation of nominal protection rates (NPR).The result shows that the changing patterns of wheat regional circulation reflect the evolution of China"s grain marketing reform. The statistic data indicate that the share of state owned grain circulation system in domestic grain marketing has declined from 90 percent in the early 1980s to less than 50% in 2003. On the other hand, non-state owned wheat marketing enterprises (private or collective) have emerging. They are gradually taking over the wheat regional trade that originally was dominated by the national or local grain bureaus. Our analysis also shows that the changes in wheat prices in major wheat production regions have been closely associated with the price changing in major wheat importing regions. The price difference between wheat production area and importing area is very close to the transportation cost. The government"s interference to domestic wheat trade is very low. The wheat price signal is not distorted in transferring processof domestic market, so the market is highly integrated and efficient. HuangHuaiHe basin and Southwest China are the only two regions in which wheat production exceeds their consumption and therefore they are major wheat exporting regions in China. From 1992/93 to 2002/03. however, exporting wheat from wheat surplus regions to wheat deficit regions decreased, while the wheat import in wheat deficit provinces increased. This reflects the changing trend of wheat production and demand in China. Before 2000 the domestic wheat wholesale prices were always above the international market price (CIF price) with the highest value (96 percent) of NPR. The NPR value has been decreasing since 1988, domestic wheat price is approaching the international prices. Till 2000, NPR decreased to 18 percent (which means domestic price was only 18 percent higher than international price). Although the ratios of domestic prices of high quality wheat to international wheat were unstable from January
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