论文标题:司法审查价值论
Choices and Arrangements of Exchange Rate Regimes in China"s Further Opening Process
论文作者 吉玉泉
论文导师 刘旺洪,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 马克思主义理论与思想政治教育
论文单位 南京师范大学,点击次数 98,论文页数 27页File Size1823k
2002-11-01论文网 http://www.lw23.com/lunwen_99021397/ 汇率制度;选择;变迁;转型;升值
exchange rate regime, choice, transition, transformation, appreciation
本文就我国当前经济形势探讨了我国汇率制度的选择与安排。作者首先分析了我国目前钉住汇率制度所造成的困难，既而对多种汇率制度进行比较，提出了我国汇率制度的选择与安排，并对我国汇率制度的转型发表了自己的看法。在文章的末尾部分作者论述了升值压力下人民币汇率的对策。 当前的钉住汇率制度会扩大实际汇率的波动幅度，加剧金融风险；钉住汇制度率会鼓励不稳定投机；会使中国独立的货币政策受到牵制；钉住汇率制度造成的巨额外汇储备给我国的储备管理造成了困难。 汇率制度的选择需综合考虑开放程度、国际金融一体化程度、国家规模和贸易格局等因素。随着我国经济总量的提高和资本账户的不断开放，当前固定汇率制度将要求逐渐过渡到浮动汇率。 人民币汇率转型的总体思路是在保持人民币汇率稳定的基础上，逐步增加人民币汇率的弹性。今后一段时间，应完善人民币汇率的形成机制，之后采用区间爬行的方法使人民币汇率向均衡汇率靠拢，人民币汇率制度改革的最终目标是形成独立浮动汇率制度。 目前人民币存在着一定的升值压力，但人民币升值会鼓励热钱的投机；会引致我国贸易类型的长久变化，即使将来汇率回到初始水平上，也难以使本国企业重新占有市场份额；人民币升值也不符合我国经济增长的目标。人民币汇率的调整也应建立在国际收支发生根本失衡的前提下。缓解人民币升值压力应着重采用汇率之外的措施平衡国际收支。
Taking current economic situation into consideration, this thesis discusses the choices and arrangements of exchange rate regimes. After analyzing the difficulties caused by the fixed peg regime, the author compares different kinds of exchange rate regimes and advances the choices and arrangements of exchange rate regimes, and puts forward his own view of china"s exchange rate regime transition. Finally the author dissertates the measures against exchange rate of RMB under the appreciation pressure.The general thought of RMB transition is to increase the elasticity of the exchange rate of RMB gradually on the basis of keeping the exchange rate of RMB steady. We should perfect the forming mechanism of RMB exchange rate in the near future, then make the exchange rate close to equilibrium rate of exchange by band creeping, the final object of the reform of the RMB exchange rate is to establish the independent floating rate regime.
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